Preview: Sydney vs Geelong

Preview: Sydney vs Geelong

Where: SCG

When: Friday 22^nd of July, 7:50pm local time

Friday night games are a rare breed in Sydney. Before last year’s Royal Wedding fixture against Carlton the last friday night home and away game was 2003. Whether this has any sway is unlikely, but it does mean that all eyes are on the Harbour City tomorrow night. The Swans won the last encounter beating the Cats at Kardinia, but before that the cats had won the last 9 games. Both teams are coming off a bye from last week and should be set to make their mark on the run home to the finals. 

Sydney

The Swans are sitting pretty in fourth at the last round of byes. With some good wins over some more fancied opponents (Hawks and Essendon) they have once again slipped under the radar. Their Round 11 match saw them steamroll Essendon until ¾ time when a flurry of goals see the final margin reduced to 4 points. Sydney will happily take the win, when really it was Essendon game to lose. The Bombers awful kicking and Dempsey’s play on after the siren giving the game away. Credit to Sydney though, they took opportunities and went to the bye with a win.

The two shining lights for the Swans this year are Josh Kennedy and Lewis Jetta. Kennedy is in sublime form, rightly becoming one of the most damaging players in the AFL. His strength and goal kicking ability make him the prime midfielder in the Sydney lineup. Along with Hannebery, Bolton, Jack and McVeigh there is a tough strong midfield to rely on. They also smashed the Bombers with lots of uncontested outside running which they will try to do again against the Cats.

The other is Lewis Jetta. Leading the goal kicking for the Swans at the half way mark, his pace and goal kicking are exciting things to watch. The Swans have a league of talls, most of which are still young and are not reaching their potential (Reid, Everett and White). They are though still stretching backlines and making a contest. The small forward in Lewis and McGlynn are loving the amount of ball coming down. 

This is where they can exploit the Cats. The cats key position backmen are formidable and won’t allow the Sydney talls to get away. But, the weakness is on ground level. Hunt is slowing down a lot and Mackie can be beaten. The one thing that the Swans are not allow to do is let Scarlett, Lonergan or Taylor to play off their man. The Swan’s talls must be on their defensive game and make them accountable.

Geelong

The cats are not the team of old. At 7 – 4 they have dropped games they normally don’t (North, Freo) and have not put teams away like they used to (Blues, Tigers). Never write the cats off though. They still have a lot of class and do not lose easily. The round 11 game vs Carlton is a strange on to read. The cats were efficient all night and won without too much fight. Their opponents though haven’t been in great form, but were gallant on the night. Sydney will be a great opponent to gauge their form. 

The cats are relying on the old crew for the engine room. Bartell, Corey, Chapman and Kelly have been the class that you should expect from them. While good, they have missed the extra 10% or so from these players that made the cats from previous years so formidable. In saying that it’s Joel Selwood that has had a stellar year. Classy and strong he has really shone for the cats. This will be an interesting mid field contest tomorrow.

The other standout is Tom Hawkins. He is now the go to guy for the Cats. Previously it has been Johnson, Mooney or even Podsiadly. He is a great mark, has a huge tank and is willing to smash through a pack for a mark. Although he was well held last match, I doubt that will happen much and could probably be put down to his surgery the week before. He will be the key for the Cats.

In fact Hawkins, Podsiadly and Johnson will be the key for the Cats, they could stretch the Swans backline. The swans lineup of Ted Richards, Heath Grundy, Matin Mattner and Rhyce Shaw do not strike fear into hearts of men, but are a tight and are responsible for the Swans being the lowest scored team against in the comp. 

Ins and Outs

A lot will be made of the ins and outs for this week’s game. This is slightly expected due to the bye, but there are some notable outs for other reason. I don't want to get into the politics of it all, so I won't.

For Sydney, the champion Goodes is back in. This will make a world of difference. They have been travelling so well without him, but he is such a good player it will improve the team. This will probably a straight swap and allow a reprieve for Pyke or Everitt. McGlynn will be in too after a week off, so this will probably see Malceski or Dennis-Lane out on form.

For the Cats, its Podsiadly in. This will give them another avenue to goal and will be welcomed. Alan Christensen is also meant to be match fit.  Jesse Stringer will also miss the last half of the season due to club suspension and Stokes maybe out with a hamstring. If the cats don’t mind a swapping a tall with a small, then it should be it. Otherwise Orren Stephenson seems to be the one that misses.

Prediction

I expect a tight fought mid field event that can go either way. It will come down to if the Cats ruck or the Sydney outside running. The SCG may allow the Swans to flood back well enough or the Cats to lock in the midfield. Tip sways to Sydney in a close fought match.

Swans by 6

Preview: West Coast vs Carlton

Where: Subiaco, Perth
When: Thurs Night, 6:40 Local Time

There is much to look forward to in tomorrow night's match. Both team have been heavily fancied for final contention during the year, but have both stumbled in previous weeks. Carlton has seen them drop 4 out of the last 5, including disappointing losses against St Kilda and Port. West Coast were seemingly travelling well until the unexpected loss to Brisbane two weeks ago. With some pride on the line, this match should live up to the excitement of the previous encounter, the 2011 Semi Final in Perth.

West Coast


The Eagles have been travelling particularly well this year, especially considering the injuries it has encountered. Their forward line has been hurt with the losses of Le Cras and Kennedy, but the likes of Hill and Darling standing up. This came slightly undone last match with the unexpected loss against the Lions. The eagles seemed to have the game with a 21 point lead in the last quarter after a topsy turvy first 3 quarters. But, the Lions stormed home with 8 goals in the last, topped by a spectacular torpedo by Polkinghorn to pip the Eagles at the post.

For the Eagles it was their backline that will worry them with small forwards Drummond, Polkinghorn and substitute Green all kicking 3 for the Lions. The Blues are renowned for their ability to score through Betts and Garlett and will look to exploit the lack of Beau Waters who is suspended this week. To cover this Sam Butler could make his return to replace Waters.

Other than this small concern, the Eagles look stong. It is often mentioned the two ruckmen but the Eagles midfield is very good and has a lot to talk about this year. The midfeild is running smoothly with Masten and Priddis both getting 27 possessions last week. These two as well as Gaff, Shuey and Rosa have really shown off the depth that the Eagles have got.

Against Carlton you would expect that the Eagles will try to push the Carlton midfield with its speed and spread. This will give them a great advantage to get to their forward line. Even if its wet the Eagles will probably not change it's forward set up and will leave the 3 talls (Lynch, Darling and a resting ruck).

Carlton

Another team gutted by injuries, but unlike the Eagles have struggled to fix the gaps. Looking much better last week against the Cats than the Port game two weeks ago the Blues will have some hope. Against the Cats the Blues held their own leading most of the way and only losing after some wayward kicking saw them kick 2.9 to 4.3 in the last to let it slip.

The positives to come out of the game was the performances of Betts, Simpson and to an extent the much maligned Block McLean. McLean had 27 disposals, but still had many brain fades. While he wont replace Murphy, he did play the role as expected. The other positive was Jamison keeping Hawkins quiet something he will have to replicate.

To give the Blues any hope is the likely return of Carazzo and Scotland which will give them much needed class. Both have reportedly flown over with the team today. Carazzo had a great year until his injury and will most likely have a job tagging one of the Eagles midfield. Scotland will make provide a great rebounding option needed at the wide open spaces of Subiaco.

Where the Blues will struggle is their backline. Jamison was good last week, but really the only shinning light. Gibbs played a run with role against Steve Johnson and did get beaten. They likes of Duigan, Bootsma, Henderson and Touhy are all valiant, but can't lock down a forward line like the Eagles.


Key Points


The weather will make a big change to the game. With expected showers it may allow the Blues to tie down the game, keeping it a low scoring contest. Wet weather will assist in that and will also cover any lack of height from the Blues.


Carlton were effective last week keeping possession and will hope to do that again. The Blues have done well at Subiaco losing only one out of the last three there and that was only a 3 point. The Blues also like to rebound quickly from defence and the space will allow this.

The Eagles have had the bye last week so have an 11 day break compared to the Blues 6 day turn around. While clubs will not say this is an issue, there maybe some fatigue issues towards the end of the game.

Judd has been heavily tagged in the weeks that Murphy has been out. While the return of Carazzo and McLean help is welcome the Blues are missing his influence. The eagles will most likely tag or run with Judd taking out of the game.

Tip

The Blues are looking to bounce back and have a lot to look forward to, but I don't think that they can hold off a West Coast team looking for revenge. The Eagle have a lot of class and will probably out gun the Blues in the end. Look forward to hard fought and fast game no matter the weather.

Eagles by 20 points.