Where: Subiaco, Perth
When: Thurs Night, 6:40 Local Time
There is much to look forward to in tomorrow night's match. Both team have been heavily fancied for final contention during the year, but have both stumbled in previous weeks. Carlton has seen them drop 4 out of the last 5, including disappointing losses against St Kilda and Port. West Coast were seemingly travelling well until the unexpected loss to Brisbane two weeks ago. With some pride on the line, this match should live up to the excitement of the previous encounter, the 2011 Semi Final in Perth.
West Coast
The Eagles have been travelling particularly well this year, especially considering the injuries it has encountered. Their forward line has been hurt with the losses of Le Cras and Kennedy, but the likes of Hill and Darling standing up. This came slightly undone last match with the unexpected loss against the Lions. The eagles seemed to have the game with a 21 point lead in the last quarter after a topsy turvy first 3 quarters. But, the Lions stormed home with 8 goals in the last, topped by a spectacular torpedo by Polkinghorn to pip the Eagles at the post.
For the Eagles it was their backline that will worry them with small forwards Drummond, Polkinghorn and substitute Green all kicking 3 for the Lions. The Blues are renowned for their ability to score through Betts and Garlett and will look to exploit the lack of Beau Waters who is suspended this week. To cover this Sam Butler could make his return to replace Waters.
Other than this small concern, the Eagles look stong. It is often mentioned the two ruckmen but the Eagles midfield is very good and has a lot to talk about this year. The midfeild is running smoothly with Masten and Priddis both getting 27 possessions last week. These two as well as Gaff, Shuey and Rosa have really shown off the depth that the Eagles have got.
Against Carlton you would expect that the Eagles will try to push the Carlton midfield with its speed and spread. This will give them a great advantage to get to their forward line. Even if its wet the Eagles will probably not change it's forward set up and will leave the 3 talls (Lynch, Darling and a resting ruck).
Carlton
Another team gutted by injuries, but unlike the Eagles have struggled to fix the gaps. Looking much better last week against the Cats than the Port game two weeks ago the Blues will have some hope. Against the Cats the Blues held their own leading most of the way and only losing after some wayward kicking saw them kick 2.9 to 4.3 in the last to let it slip.
The positives to come out of the game was the performances of Betts, Simpson and to an extent the much maligned Block McLean. McLean had 27 disposals, but still had many brain fades. While he wont replace Murphy, he did play the role as expected. The other positive was Jamison keeping Hawkins quiet something he will have to replicate.
To give the Blues any hope is the likely return of Carazzo and Scotland which will give them much needed class. Both have reportedly flown over with the team today. Carazzo had a great year until his injury and will most likely have a job tagging one of the Eagles midfield. Scotland will make provide a great rebounding option needed at the wide open spaces of Subiaco.
Where the Blues will struggle is their backline. Jamison was good last week, but really the only shinning light. Gibbs played a run with role against Steve Johnson and did get beaten. They likes of Duigan, Bootsma, Henderson and Touhy are all valiant, but can't lock down a forward line like the Eagles.
Key Points
The weather will make a big change to the game. With expected showers it may allow the Blues to tie down the game, keeping it a low scoring contest. Wet weather will assist in that and will also cover any lack of height from the Blues.
Carlton were effective last week keeping possession and will hope to do that again. The Blues have done well at Subiaco losing only one out of the last three there and that was only a 3 point. The Blues also like to rebound quickly from defence and the space will allow this.
The Eagles have had the bye last week so have an 11 day break compared to the Blues 6 day turn around. While clubs will not say this is an issue, there maybe some fatigue issues towards the end of the game.
Judd has been heavily tagged in the weeks that Murphy has been out. While the return of Carazzo and McLean help is welcome the Blues are missing his influence. The eagles will most likely tag or run with Judd taking out of the game.
Tip
The Blues are looking to bounce back and have a lot to look forward to, but I don't think that they can hold off a West Coast team looking for revenge. The Eagle have a lot of class and will probably out gun the Blues in the end. Look forward to hard fought and fast game no matter the weather.
Eagles by 20 points.
